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So what the heck was House Speaker Michael Madigan up
to last week when he finally came out in support of an income-tax increase
and urged the governor to drop his opposition to the idea?
Madigan has always been coy about whether he really
supports an income-tax hike. Most people thought he probably did and that
he might somehow be maneuvering the legislative session in that direction,
so, when he finally announced that he supported the increase, the whole
Statehouse took notice.
On one level, it was a response to a letter sent by
Gov. Rod Blagojevich earlier in the week, demanding that Madigan and the
two Republican legislative leaders come up with an alternative revenue
stream to fund education. It was also undoubtedly designed to get tongues
wagging and freak out the governor, a staunch opponent of the tax hike.
It certainly accomplished both of those goals. While
the Statehouse buzzed with talk of Madigan’s remarks, Blagojevich
reportedly ranted about the income-tax idea during a meeting of the
legislative leaders, loudly taunting Madigan and others who attended,
“Go ahead and pass it,” over and over again. Blagojevich was
concerned enough about earlier revelations that Jones and Madigan had been
privately talking about the budget and about Jones’ agreement during
that days’ leaders meeting that he would work with Madigan to craft a
new budget that he kept Jones in his office for several minutes after the
other leaders had left.
Jones emerged from that long conversation with his
session-long political ally to tell reporters that the Senate would give an
income-tax increase “strong consideration” if Madigan passed it
out of the House. The Senate president claimed that he was against a
“regressive” sales tax increase, “but I’m open to
the income tax.” Jones had been a strong proponent of an income-tax
increase until earlier this year, when he decided to side with the
governor’s massive — and now deceased — tax on business.
While the place was still buzzing, Madigan eventually
pointed to the governor’s strong and often-stated opposition to an
income-tax hike as a major reason that the tax increase would probably
never be instituted.
All that said, with everything working against an
income-tax hike and keeping in mind that I’m with those who think
that it’s highly unlikely if not impossible, if you were going to
design a scenario that could produce an income tax increase, the situation
that the General Assembly finds itself in right now is probably it —
and, as we all know, Madigan is a crafty fellow, so he has to be watched
closely.
An income-tax hike couldn’t have been
accomplished during the regular legislative session. There just
wasn’t enough pressure on members. Overtime is different. It takes a
three-fifths majority, the same number of members required to override a
veto, to pass anything. The governor thought that he could wear down the
House by calling them into special sessions several days a week, but his
in-your-face antics and anti-Madigan rhetoric have fired up and united
House members like never before.
It’s the Senate that is causing the real
problems for the governor. The overtime session has been difficult for
Jones, whose health hasn’t been all that great. His members are fed
up and want a deal, and they don’t appreciate the governor’s
inability to move the ball forward.
Like Madigan, Jones is a crafty man and requires a
close watch.
As a legislative leader, Jones naturally prizes
negotiating skills, and his negotiating partner until now — the
governor — is noticeably lacking in those abilities. Jones is looking
for a way to end this interminable session (in what may be his last term in
office) and fulfill a career-long dream of “solving” the
education-funding situation once and for all. The governor, who is still
committed to his own dream of universal health insurance, is getting in the
way of Jones’ aspirations.
Although an income-tax increase is still very
unlikely, this same environment could help produce a Jones-Madigan
agreement that would break the gridlock and produce a deal on other revenue
ideas, and that’s what Madigan’s gambit may have been all about:
Find common ground with someone (Jones) who is allied with a political
rival (Blagojevich) and build on it.
Stay tuned.
Rich Miller publishes Capitol Fax, a daily
political newsletter, and thecapitolfaxblog.com.
Madigan’s gambit
Peel Jones from Blagojevich — and get an agreement
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