Let’s continue our examination of U.S. Senate candidates. This time, the Democrats:
• Dan Hynes. Obviously the man to beat. State Comptroller Hynes has lined up big-time labor support, he has the backing of most county chairmen, and he has put together a good organization. He’s already won two statewide elections by wide margins.
So why is Hynes considered vulnerable? Well, his name recognition is still fairly low, and kabillionaire Blair Hull is a huge threat. Just as importantly, he has yet to say why he’s running, other than he thinks he can win. His overly cautious, conservative manner contrasts starkly with many of his opponents.
In a normal year, Hynes would be a lock. But next year may not be normal. Democrats are furious at George W. Bush and at their party’s leadership for going along with the Bush tax and war programs. Hynes has no anger about him–he comes off as a guy who will do what he’s told. If his opponents can “nationalize” this race, then Hynes will be in trouble.
• Blair Hull. For years Hull has helped finance Democratic campaigns, and now he wants his own shot at the big time. So far, though, he’s viewed more as a spoiler than a potential victor.
In most years, winning a statewide Democratic primary requires two things: Organizational support and name familiarity. Hull has neither–yet. And Dem voters usually don’t trust rich white guys as their standard-bearers.
But his early TV ads are moving him up in the polls, and his strategy seems to be to tap into that disenchantment among rank-and-file Democrats. If he ever gets his act together (his staff is terribly top-heavy), he will make a legit run next spring.
• Barack Obama. State Senator Obama would probably make a great U.S. Senator, but his candidacy will be crippled by his race and his foreign-sounding name. A Harvard Law graduate, Obama is a thoughtful progressive. He will likely do well with his all-important African-American voter base, though Congressman Bobby Rush’s endorsement of Blair Hull will hurt.
Obama is working hard to reach out to young professional Democrats and downstate voters. He was endorsed recently by Congressman Lane Evans, but Evans’ organization ain’t what it used to be. He’s also not doing too badly in the fund-raising department.
By far, Obama is the most impressive potential senator. If he can somehow get that across to voters, he’ll have a great shot.
• Maria Pappas. Cook County Treasurer Pappas has received very little attention from the pundits and political insiders. But if she ever gets moving, this race could be hers to lose.
Pappas is full of vitality and could easily tap into grassroots anger at the Washington establishment. She is also better known in Cook County than any other candidate, including Dan Hynes.
Yet, so far, she has no organization, no campaign infrastructure, and apparently no ideas. If she can show an understanding of the issues awaiting her in D.C.–and can raise enough money to pick up a few downstate votes–she could possibly leap to the head of the pack.
• Gery Chico. He’s at the top of the second tier by virtue of money raised, but Chico has convinced few people that he can actually win. Talk to his former law-firm partners and you’ll hear stories about how Chico mismanaged Altheimer & Gray right into the ground. The firm’s bankruptcy–and the resulting bad press he got while he was president of the Chicago public schools system–will haunt him throughout his campaign. I don’t know how someone can possibly shake all of this baggage and still get nominated.
• Nancy Skinner. The liberal radio talk-show host has attracted some national attention in her U.S. Senate bid, but so far she’s hardly made an impression on Illinois media. Still, that national exposure could help her raise enough money to compete. She could be the dark horse.
• Joyce Washington. A health care executive who made a credible run for lieutenant governor last year, Washington has made few inroads this time out. Her campaign has been self-financed, but she’s not wealthy enough to continue that for long. Rumors abound that she is in the race solely to take votes away from Barack Obama, but I doubt she’s that cynical.
• Matt O’Shea. The Republican mayor of Metamora, O’Shea is one of the longest of the long shots. He has no personal wealth, no organization, no base, and no real clue about how to run a statewide campaign.
• Estella Johnson-Hunt. Who?
This article appears in Sep 18-24, 2003.
