The last time a sitting Illinois Republican
congressperson faced a real primary challenge from a non-incumbent was more
than seven years ago, when then-state Sen. Kyle McCarter, R-Lebanon, challenged
US Rep. John Shimkus, R-Collinsville. Even so, nobody really thought
McCarter had much of a chance, and, as expected, he ended up losing to Shimkus
by more than 20 points.
We’ve seen reapportionment-related GOP primaries
between congressional incumbents – the most recent being US Rep. Rodney Davis’
2022 crushing loss to fellow US Rep. Mary Miller (no relation) - but serious
challenges of sitting Republican US Representatives are otherwise fairly rare
here.
Mike Bost is now finding himself in that fairly
rare territory. The four-term Congressman from southern Illinois gained
national renown after throwing a paper copy of an Illinois House bill into the
air during an angry floor tirade against reducing public employee pensions.
Bost is now up against former state legislator Darren Bailey, who two-upped
Bost by posting an online video of himself shooting a paper copy of a state
budget bill with a high-powered assault rifle, and then posted another video of
him taking a flame-thrower to a budget bill.
Bailey is Bost-plus. He is Guns N' Roses to
Bost’s Bon Jovi. The crewcut candidate pledged undying fealty to Donald Trump
on a hot, sweaty public stage when the then-President publicly endorsed him for
governor last year. He’ll run as an outsider against a career politician who
has held public office for 28 years. And, just last year, well over $200
million dollars was spent for and against Bailey in the governor’s race, some
of it by the same person (Gov. JB Pritzker). That adds up to a whole lot of
name recognition for Bailey as he enters this contest.
But Bailey is also a not-great fundraiser. Bost
recently claimed to have $1 million campaign cash on hand. Bailey only raised $2
million or so for the 2022 general election (much of it in large contributions
from his family) outside of the money he got from billionaire Richard Uihlein,
who chose to spend most of his pro-Bailey money via a Dan Proft independent
expenditure committee. There were no state contribution caps in that 2022 race,
but congressional contribution caps are both stringent and low, and they don’t
allow family members and billionaires to dump lots of cash. Unless some rich
people come in with bigtime dark money, Bailey will be running a shoestring
race against Bost.
Bost can also count on the National Republican
Congressional Committee, which runs a well-funded incumbent protection program.
“Darren Bailey moved to a downtown Chicago penthouse to get blown out by JB
Pritzker, now he’s back seeking another political promotion,” said NRCC
spokesperson Chris Gustafson when Bailey announced against Bost. “Mike Bost is
focused on delivering conservative results for Southern Illinois and that's why
voters will reelect him.”
Bost has also lined up about half the Republican
county sheriffs in his district, plus a couple of retired sheriffs. Those folks
loved Darren Bailey last year, but are sticking with Bost this time around.
Bost received 75% of the vote last November, compared to Bailey’s 72.5% in the
district against Pritzker. And Bost was recently endorsed by National Right to
Life, which he described as “America's oldest and largest pro-life
organization.”
Bost knows how to speak to the base, calling out
“Joe Biden and the crazy liberals in Congress,” and their “woke, radical
agenda” for “causing chaos with our economy, confusion in our schools, and a
crisis at our southern border,” during his reelection announcement. Bost also
said that while the district needs a fighter, “We've got enough show horses in
Washington as it is; that's why I remain laser-focused on serving the people
and delivering real results for Southern Illinois, the place I've proudly
called home my entire life.”
Bailey did not bother delivering any results
when he was in the state legislature, other than making people feel good about
voting for him. But he’s extremely adept at that task, so he probably doesn’t
need a whole lot of money to remain competitive. He has authentic far-right
street cred coming out his ears.
Cor Strategies, which polls for Republicans,
released a poll last week showing the incumbent Bost ahead of Bailey 43-37. A
Bost win could help show other “work horse” conservative Republicans how to
fend off “show horse” insurgents. A Bailey win would once again illustrate the party’s
far-rightward lurch.