If you’re wondering why Gov. Rod
Blagojevich would flip-flop on his vow to reform the state’s
massively underfunded pension system, you don’t have to look
much farther than the most recent poll.
A recent survey of 1,000 registered Illinois
voters showed Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading
Democratic Blagojevich by almost 10 percentage points.
The automated poll, paid for by the Topinka
campaign, showed Topinka ahead of Blagojevich 45.8 percent to 36.4
percent, with 18 percent undecided. The survey had a margin of
error of 3 percentage points.
The poll, which tracked with surveys by the Chicago Tribune and by
SurveyUSA, found that the governor’s job-approval rating was
34 percent, whereas his disapproval rating was 53 percent. Both the
Tribune and
SurveyUSA had the governor’s approval in the midthirties,
whereas SurveyUSA’s disapproval was close to Topinka’s
result. The Tribune had Blagojevich’s disapproval at 44 percent.
SurveyUSA polled registered voters; the Tribune questioned likely
voters.
The Topinka survey results were similar to
those of the Tribune’s poll by region. The Tribune found that just 28 percent of downstaters want
to see Blagojevich reelected and that 30 percent approved of his
job performance. Topinka’s poll found that 29.5 percent
support the governor’s reelection and that 28 percent approve
of his performance.
A governor under siege is a dream come true
for people such as House Speaker Michael Madigan. Blagojevich has
been a thorn in Madigan’s side for years, and they have
traded barbs ever since Blagojevich won the 2002 Democratic
gubernatorial primary. Blagojevich has never taken Madigan’s
usually sage advice, and this has irritated the speaker to
no end.
But Madigan has been unusually quiet this
year. No longer does he sharply criticize the governor’s
budget proposals or threaten to kill the governor’s
legislative initiatives. He’s even gone out of his way to say
nice things about his former adversary.
It wasn’t difficult for Madigan —
or anyone else, for that matter — to see that the governor
was heading for trouble when Blagojevich picked a nasty public
fight with his own father-in-law in December. Constant missteps and
an escalating series of scandals haven’t helped.
Blagojevich’s reelection prospects were suddenly in question,
and Madigan knew that the governor would need some friends soon.
Madigan decided last year that the state ought
to restructure its pension-payment schedule. The current payments
are eating the budget alive. Skipping a couple of years’
worth of payments while adjusting the payoff schedule seemed the
best way out.
The governor flatly dismissed Madigan’s
idea last year. Blagojevich wanted to do things his own way, and,
as a result, we ended up with a two-month overtime session that
accomplished very little.
This year, the governor drafted a fatally
flawed budget proposal. Much of it was based on drastic benefit
reforms for state workers and teachers.
Public-employee unions have been pressuring
legislators and the governor ever since. When he was still riding
high in the polls, the governor could ignore complaints from the
Democratic Party’s natural constituencies. But when his
numbers suddenly tanked, he needed a quick way out of his
self-created mess. If unions abandon him next spring, it could
prove disastrous with Democratic primary voters.
It was too late in the session to come up
with an entirely new budget, so Blagojevich turned to an unlikely
ally, Madigan, who dusted off his pension-holiday plan. Blagojevich
could avoid cutting benefits for union workers, adjourn the session
on time, and then take a few weeks to rethink his approach to
governing without the distraction of an overtime-weary Legislature
and news media. The governor jumped at the opportunity.
There’s always a reason behind
Madigan’s master-chess-player behavior. It’s why he
almost always gets his way. This year has been no exception.
This article appears in Jun 2-8, 2005.
