Is Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration just
as corrupt or even more corrupt than former Gov. George Ryan’s? In a
new poll, a plurality of Illinoisans answers yes to that question. A poll by the Glengariff Group found that 43 percent
of Illinoisans believe that the Blagojevich administration is as corrupt or
more corrupt than George Ryan’s; 41 percent said there is less
corruption. The findings are surprising because Ryan was recently convicted
of all charges in a federal criminal trial but no officials of
Blagojevich’s administration have even been indicted. The Glengariff survey of 600 registered voters was
taken June 1-3 and had a margin of error of 4 percent. The poll was not
taken on behalf of any candidate. Blagojevich leads Topinka by 7 points in the poll,
41-34. That represents a 10-point drop for Topinka from an early-April
poll, when Glengariff had the Republican challenger leading the Democratic
incumbent 44-41. Since then, the governor has let loose with a barrage of
negative TV ads that have done what they were intended to do — drive
Topinka’s numbers down. However, Topinka is ahead 53-25 among voters who
believe that Blagojevich’s administration is as corrupt or more
corrupt than Ryan’s. Those who think that there has been less
corruption prefer Blagojevich over Topinka, 60-23. “The corruption
factor appears to be the great divide in this race,” says Glengariff
president Richard Czuba. The results show that hammering away at the
corruption issue may be a path to victory for Topinka. Blagojevich will
have to convince voters that Topinka is just another George Ryan and hope
that demographics and superior fundraising and organization will put him
over the top. But stories uncovering corruption in his administration are
trickling out every few days, and that pace will undoubtedly quicken as the
campaign progresses, and nobody really knows what the feds and the state
attorney general have up their sleeves. The poll found that 35 percent of Democrats, 56
percent of Republicans, and 43 percent of independents thought that
corruption was the same or worse as during Ryan’s tenure. On the
other hand, 53 percent of Democrats, 30 percent of Republicans, and 36
percent of independents thought that the corruption situation had improved
under Blagojevich. Forty percent of African-Americans and 42 percent of
whites thought it was worse; 44 percent of blacks and 42 percent of whites
believed it was better. The survey also shows big trouble for Topinka with
Republicans since the last Glengariff Group poll was taken in April, when
81 percent of Republican voters supported her candidacy. Now, just 65
percent back their party’s standard-bearer, a likely result of the
governor’s TV ads, which appear to be a lot better done than most of
the ads run by Topinka’s primary opponents. The good news for Topinka
is that her support among independents is the same — 39 percent. Back in November, Glengariff had Blagojevich at 39
percent, and he was at 41 percent in April, so he hasn’t moved much
at all. “While the challenger’s numbers have taken a
hit,” pollster Czuba said in a press release, “Rod Blagojevich
appears to be stuck at 41 percent of the vote and unable to translate
undecided voters into his camp.” Right now, though, the main task at
hand is to drive Topinka’s negatives up so high that she can’t
recover. However, an incumbent whose administration is unfavorably likened
to that of a convicted former governor and who is stuck at 41 percent is
not in the greatest shape, no matter how much money he has. Blagojevich leads in Chicago 60-17 and in suburban
Cook County 43-28, according to Glengariff. Back in April, Topinka had a
big lead in suburban Cook, 50-33, so this is another ominous development
for her. The Democratic governor even has a slight lead in the Republican
collar counties, 36-34 — a likely result of Topinka’s big drop
in GOP support and strikingly bad news. In April, Topinka had a 51-35 lead
over Blagojevich in the collars. Topinka leads in all downstate regions. They both have problems, and when that happens the
solution is usually negative attacks against the other side. Buckle up.
This article appears in Jun 15-21, 2006.
