Across the nation, economists have expressed concerns about the reliability of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, not because of political bias or thumbs on the scale, but rather a lack of manpower amongst the scaled-back federal agency tasked with fielding data about the country’s economic health.
That concern stretches to Springfield, according to Ryan McCrady, president and CEO of the Springfield Sangamon Growth Alliance, who said the agency’s data revisions, a common practice, have become increasingly atypical.
“Most of the biggest employers in town sit on my board and I talk with them a lot. They’ve not had any concerns. Everybody we talk to is looking for talent,” McCrady told Illinois Times. “I’m not saying our economy’s raging, I do think it’s fair to say it looks like it’s pretty stable and it has been pretty stable.”
The most recent Illinois Department of Employment Security jobs report showed a loss of 1,700 nonfarm jobs for the Springfield Metropolitan Statistical Area from April 2025 to April 2026. McCrady pointed to other Springfield metrics as evidence of a steadier local economy – such as increasing sales tax receipts and a year-to-year reduction in initial applications for unemployment insurance.
“We would have seen a big reduction in school enrollments, the housing market would change, sales taxes would go down, unemployment filings would go up,” he said. “We always keep an eye on a lot of other economic indicators, and based on that, we’re seeing a stable economy. We do acknowledge what’s in the (IDES) report; we’re just not finding other economic indicators to show that same impact to our economy.”
Though sales tax receipt increases can be attributed to inflation of everyday purchases and not everyone eligible for unemployment insurance files claims, the numbers don’t support a massive job loss.
McCrady emphasized that the balancing act to obtain timely jobs data won’t always provide the most accurate results. Massive reductions in Department of Labor staff, including major leadership vacancies for the BLS and fewer responses to voluntary federal employment surveys have led to results worth questioning.
In 2016, the BLS had a 66% response rate for voluntary monthly BLS surveys. In December 2025, the response rate was 35%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco studied the revisions last year, concluding that “incoming data are within the historical range and not generally subject to greater fluctuations – and thus may not reflect higher uncertainty – than in the past.”
Still, the bureau has cut back other methods of data collection and economists remain puzzled by federal data releases. The American Statistical Association suggested the federal government restore staffing for data collection agencies immediately to ensure “efficient and smooth governance.
“The federal statistical system stands at a crossroads. The status quo is not sustainable,” a 2025 ASA report states.
“I want to be really clear that I’m not blaming anyone in state or federal government,” McCrady said of the numbers, saying there’s no conspiracy of manipulation. “There’s been a lot of staff changes in the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the federal level… and there was a 43-day (federal government) shutdown; there’s been a lot of things going on.”
The Illinois Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) database shows no mass layoffs reported in the past 12 months for Sangamon and Menard counties, the counties that federal agencies designate the Springfield Metropolitan Statistical Area. The most recent WARN notification in the Springfield MSA was submitted by Wells Fargo in January 2023, which laid off 140 employees four months later.
McCrady said he was unsure if the BLS should overhaul its methodology for monthly data collection but supported the idea of an analysis for why the data doesn’t jive with other important markers of economic health.
“It’s worth someone taking the time to understand why we’re having these big adjustments, and if it is because of a decrease in response rates, then that’s something that that needs to be worked on. Economic developers, like the Growth Alliance, will be really helpful if state or federal government call us and say, ‘Well, there’s something you can do with your businesses to help improve response rates.’ I’m always in favor of a root cause analysis,” he said. “I do think we need to work with state and federal officials to get response rates up.”
The BLS has been without a confirmed commissioner to lead the agency for nearly a year, though a U.S. Senate Committee held a June 10 confirmation hearing for various presidential nominees including Brett Matsumoto, who has been praised by economists and past BLS commissioners.
He told the committee, if confirmed, he would maintain independence of the bureau, potentially research the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market and “any changes to data or methods would be approved by career staff at the agency, and communicated to the public ahead of time along with research supporting the change.”
Matsumoto also addressed declining response rates to surveys as a “pivotal moment,” potentially impacting “sample sizes, the variability of data and revisions.”
He said he would try to increase response rates and pursue “alternative data sources” such as getting information from payroll companies or use tax withholding data.
Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester, D-Delaware, asked Matsumoto, a Delaware native, whether he believes recent revisions can be explained as weaponization of the agency.
“I believe there are technical reasons that could perhaps explain these large revisions, but no, I do not (believe that),” he said.
McCrady said the validity, and quality, of labor data need to be taken seriously by government officials if they want to understand the job market’s true health.
“The economy is like a gigantic aircraft carrier and you can’t turn it on a dime, so there’s a benefit to the federal government to also understanding the quality and accuracy of the data,” he said.
This article appears in June 11-17, 2026.
