We have ourselves a ballgame. After keeping everyone guessing for months,
state treasurer Judy Baar Topinka on Monday finally threw her hat
into the three-ring circus that will be the Illinois
governor’s race, albeit unofficially. But before Topinka locks horns with Gov. Rod
Blagojevich in next year’s general election, she must beat
out at least five other Republicans for the party’s
nomination in March. Already in the race: DuPage County
State’s Attorney Joe Birkett, Chicago-area businessman Ron
Gidwitz, Aurora milk mogul Jim Oberweis, and state Sens. Bill Brady
and Steve Rauschenberger, of Bloomington and Elgin, respectively. Despite having not yet formally announced her
candidacy, Topinka has already been pegged as the GOP front-runner,
much to the consternation of the rest of the field. Those who have dismissed the rest of the
candidates, says Dan Proft, a spokesman for Rauschenberger,
“have a misunderstanding of Republican Party and electoral
politics. “Her only advantage is a little higher
name ID,” Proft says. He points to a poll, conducted recently by
Zogby International, showing Rauschenberger and Blagojevich in a
statistical tie. The poll shows the governor leading Topinka by 7
percentage points. However, Topinka clearly leads the pack in
other polls, and, to this point, her competitors have yet to create
much buzz for themselves. University of Illinois at Springfield
political-studies professor Christopher Z. Mooney further puts it
into perspective: “An undecided is leading the race,
basically.” Polling figures aside, Mooney says, Topinka is popular because she is the only
gubernatorial candidate, other than Blagojevich, ever elected to
statewide office. In fact, Riverside native Topinka has run three
successful statewide campaigns, all for treasurer. Topinka could also get some traction with
Democrat-friendly groups who have criticized Blagojevich. Noting that the Illinois Association of
Minorities in Government is nonpartisan, executive director Roy
Williams Jr. says that his organization simply educates its members
on candidates and issues. “I want members to take a good long look
at the candidates. I plan to make sure that our members will be
active in this election,” he says. IAMG has called for an investigation into
allegations of rampant racial discrimination in several state
agencies under the governor’s control. Federal prosecutors are also looking into
hiring practices of Blagojevich’s administration for state
jobs. “If something pops, if somebody close
to [Blagojevich] gets indicted over the course of the next year, he
can be very vulnerable a year from now,” Mooney says. Furthermore, Topinka’s centrist stance
on abortion and gay-rights issues make her the kind of Republican
who could win the governor’s race in blue-state Illinois,
Mooney says. That’s not to say that it will be easy.
Topinka must succeed in two difficult campaigns — first the
Republican primary, then the general election — facing
formidable opponents in both. “You’ve got Jim Oberweis, who has
lots of money and is willing to spend it, and he fights the hard fight,” Mooney says.
“Blagojevich has got more money than Midas, and he will probably
be getting more soon. We also know that he fights the hard
fight.” According to the Illinois State Board of
Elections campaign-finance-disclosure Web site, Topinka has $1.4
million in cash on hand. As of June, Blagojevich has $14.3 million
in his campaign coffers. Oberweis has raised approximately $700,000
but, as he did with an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid, is funding his
campaign mostly out of his own pocket. Topinka’s opponents will likely try to
draw attention to an ongoing federal investigation of
Topinka’s office and her too-liberal-for-Republican-comfort
social views. Proft says he doesn’t understand how
anyone can get behind Topinka with a “cloud” of
corruption hanging over her, and he calls Topinka’s
supporters the “last vestiges of a bygone era in our
party’s history.” David Loveday, Topinka campaign spokesman,
dismisses Proft’s rhetoric, saying that Topinka “plans
to run on the issues and what’s best for the state of
Illinois. She’s run three times for statewide office and won
three times. The people of Illinois know her, and she feels very
comfortable.” But even if Topinka is hard for conservatives
to swallow, Mooney says, Republicans will realize that beating
Blagojevich is most important for their party. “The pragmatic wing of the Republican
Party sees her as one of them,” Mooney says. “In Illinois, politics is about
winning, who gets into office, where do you pour the concrete, who
gets the bridge. That’s been our tradition for a long
time.”
This article appears in Nov 10-16, 2005.
