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There are several important things to keep in mind
when discussing the governor’s proposed budget cuts. The governor
threatened to slash $1.5 billion from the state budget unless the House
comes back to Springfield and passes some revenue-generating bills and the
capital construction budget, all of which were approved by the Senate in
May and blocked by House Speaker Michael Madigan. We don’t really know what the governor is
actually planning to do. Last week was just a media event. The idea was to
instill fear and loathing among the press and the various constituencies
that would be affected by his threatened cuts, but there were no real
details, just a broad brush. Why would I ever doubt Blagojevich’s
intentions? Well, the governor threatened deep cuts during the spring
session to balance the supposedly out-of-whack budget and never followed
through. Remember those draconian cuts to 4-H and other agricultural
programs he threatened in April? The governor eventually released the
money. There is no doubt that a budget hole exists and that cuts are
inevitable. Let’s be very clear: There will be pain. We just
don’t yet know what the governor will do when the budget bills are
finally on his desk and he holds that veto pen in his hand. The Senate Democrats insist that the governor vastly
inflated the size of the fiscal year 2008 deficit, so although everyone has
focused on the governor’s claim of a $2 billion deficit for fiscal
year 2009, which began July 1, that figure could be inflated as well. Some of the governor’s announced cuts are not
really cuts but are actually reductions in proposed increases. Many may
look horrible on paper, but these are just expansions that won’t
happen.
Quite a few of the cuts seemed designed specifically
to generate media attention and threaten hardship. The entire $28 million
state subsidy to Amtrak would apparently be eliminated, for instance,
potentially killing off three of the five trains that run daily from
Chicago to St. Louis. Two of the three trains between Chicago and
Carbondale would also have to be eliminated. The governor’s obvious intent was to shift the
blame for these and other impending cuts to Madigan, but Madigan
doesn’t appear too concerned about it. It’s unlikely that
they’ll be coming back to Springfield to take any action,
Madigan’s lieutenants told the media. The House Republicans claimed that they’d be
willing to work out a deal but offered no solutions of their own. Their
members oppose the two revenue-generating bills passed by the Senate
Democrats and demanded by the governor (a huge pension-obligation bond and
some special-fund sweeps), and now that May is over and legislative
solutions require a three-fifths vote. The ball will likely be in their
court to come up with an alternative if Madigan refuses to propose any of
his own.
The Chicago Tribune demanded in an editorial last week that the governor veto
the entire budget and bring back the General Assembly for a special
session. That won’t happen, because the all-important Senate
Democrats oppose it. A Chicago Sun-Times editorial suggested that a deal could be cut on the
special-funds sweeps, but there aren’t nearly enough House votes to
pass it. You’ll undoubtedly hear more “simple solutions”
in the coming days, but the harsh political realities of Springfield make
even the easiest solution next to impossible. If the governor goes through with these draconian
cuts he can certainly make the case that Madigan is to blame, but in the
end the governor — any governor — always wears the jacket. It
will be his veto pen doing the slashing. It is his administration.
Still, there’s no doubt that the speaker has
hurt the Madigan “name brand” with this horrific war. That
could make any gubernatorial bid by his daughter, Attorney General Lisa
Madigan, all the more difficult. Speaker Madigan doesn’t really care
about what Blagojevich and the media do to him, but this mud will splash on
his daughter.
Rich Miller
publishes Capitol Fax, a daily
political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.
This article appears in Jun 26 – Jul 2, 2008.
