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Gov. Rod Blagojevich insists that his proposed $6
billion gross-receipts tax on business doesn’t break his campaign
promise last year not to increase income or sales taxes, but a recent poll
finds that voters think otherwise.
The very last question of the 45-question poll, in
which voters were told both positive and negative aspects of the proposal,
asks this: “Now, during the campaign, Gov. Blagojevich promised not
to raise income or sales taxes. By increasing business taxes, do you think,
he is keeping his promise or not?”
A clear majority, 54 percent, said the governor was
breaking his promise not to raise taxes; just 34 percent said he was
keeping his promise. Eleven percent said they didn’t know. The governor told the Associated Press last month
that voters shouldn’t be surprised that he would introduce the
gross-receipts tax, despite his repeated pledges last year not to raise
general taxes. “This gross-receipts — this tax-fairness
proposal is very much along the lines of what I did for four years,”
the governor said, adding, “It’s just a bigger, bolder version
of it.” His top people have repeatedly pointed out that the proposed
tax hits businesses, not “people,” so the plan is not a
promise-breaker. But a majority appears to disagree. And because the
“promise” question was asked after numerous other questions
about the governor’s tax hike, both pro and con, the poll’s
respondents had a fairly good idea of what the tax proposal was all about.
The statewide survey was paid for by business group
opponents of the governor’s gross-receipts tax. The poll was
professionally done, however. The sample size was 600 voters, and it was
taken March 14, 15, and 17 by Neil Newhouse, a partner with Public Opinion
Strategies. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The governor’s tax proposal has been hammered
in the past several weeks by his fellow Democrats, as well as business and
farm groups, the Illinois Press Association, and proponents of an
income/sales-tax swap. The governor and his top aides have been traveling
the state, holding press conferences with proponents of the idea, and the
teachers unions and hospitals have bankrolled a TV-advertising blitz. Meanwhile, 43 percent of Illinoisans said they
thought that Blagojevich “can be trusted to manage our tax dollars
wisely,” but a majority, 53 percent, disagreed with that statement. Blagojevich’s job approval was pegged in this
poll at 46 percent. An equal number, 46 percent, disapproved. By
comparison, 47 percent said they approve of the state Legislature’s
job performance; 35 percent said they disapprove. About half, 48 percent, said Blagojevich “looks
out for the whole state’s best interest, not just Chicago”; 45
percent disagreed. And a whopping 64 percent said Blagojevich
“should live and work in Springfield,” but 27 percent said he
doesn’t need to. The poll did find broad support for the
governor’s stated priorities. For instance, 68 percent of respondents
said they favor “expanding early childhood development
programs”; 27 percent were opposed. Sixty-five percent said they back “expanding
the state’s health care program in order to offer health coverage to
uninsured and underinsured state residents”; 31 percent were opposed.
And 69 percent liked the idea of “increasing state aid to local
public schools by $1.5 billion”; 26 percent were against the idea. But the governor’s revenue-generating ideas
were not exactly popular. Just 34 percent of respondents said they favor
“creating a new tax on service providers such as doctors, lawyers,
accountants, and home contractors”; 60 percent were against it. Only
32 percent said they favor “creating a new tax on business to pay for
health care — even if the business already provides health care
coverage to its workers”; 60 percent were opposed. And just 22 percent said they back
“creating a new tax which requires businesses to pay the state each
time the business gets paid for a product or service — regardless of
whether or not the business made a profit.” Seventy-two percent were
opposed. The governor definitely has his work cut out for him.
Rich Miller publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political
newsletter, and thecapitolfaxblog.com.
This article appears in Mar 29 – Apr 4, 2007.
