Last week I handicapped four of the possible
Republican contenders for governor — state Treasurer Judy
Baar Topinka, U.S. Rep Ray LaHood, milk magnate Jim
Oberweis, and former state schools superintendent Ron Gidwitz.
Here’s a look at other Republicans who want to defeat Gov.
Rod Blagojevich:
State Sen. Steve Rauschenberger —
Running a strong third in the U.S. Senate primary last year has not
paid off for Rauschenberger, who is in the low single digits in
every recent poll.
Rauschenberger is the darling of the
“thinking Right,” but the conservative wing is divided
at the moment and its numbers simply aren’t large enough in
Illinois to accommodate two or more candidates.
Rauschenberger was endorsed by just about
every newspaper editorial board in the state during his U.S. Senate
race against Jack Ryan and Jim Oberweis last year, helping him
overcome a terrible fundraising effort. Rauschenberger claimed in
May and then again last week that his campaign committee will
report having $800,000 at the end of June. That’s not bad,
but doubters out there don’t think the cash is
“real.”
Still, Statehouse reporters love
Rauschenberger, whom they regard as a budget expert and cherish as
a font of colorful quotes about Illinois leaders. He can probably
expect lots of positive coverage and will most likely use the media
frequently in the coming months to paint himself as a reformer. He
also might be able to break out during any upcoming debates. But he
first has to get those numbers up to a place
where he can begin to compete.
DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett —
Birkett just barely lost the attorney general’s race in 2002
to Lisa Madigan, the most politically connected person to ever run
for that office. You’d think that would make him a strong
contender for any office in 2006, but Birkett has burned a lot of
bridges.
Birkett is poised to put at least one
negative behind him in the coming weeks when he indicts Brian Dugan
for the murder of Jeanine Nicarico — which, frankly, he
should have done years ago. Dugan confessed to the crime, but
Birkett’s office continued to pursue murder charges against
an innocent man.
Birkett has yet to overcome the lingering
questions about what he is doing in this race. Many suspect that
Birkett is running for governor merely to retire the hundreds of
thousands of dollars in debt from his 2002 campaign. Others think
that he’s waiting for a brokered deal that gives him another
shot at the attorney general’s office.
He has tried so far to position himself as a
corruption fighter and has taken some of the harshest shots of
anyone at Blagojevich. Birkett remains a breakout possibility,
particularly because of his base in vote-rich DuPage County. But
that tough-guy act of his is beyond old and makes him look
arrogant.
State Sen. Bill Brady — The
Bloomington legislator reminds many people of Blagojevich, but in a
good way. He is relatively young and fresh in voters’ minds,
and he has a burning desire for higher office. Brady is also a nice
guy, and people tend to like him.
But Blagojevich did more than just showcase
his freshness in 2002. Almost entirely beneath the radar,
Blagojevich put together one of the strongest statewide operations
ever. Brady’s operation appears tiny in comparison. He says
he raised $500,000 in June alone, and that’s a good start.
We’ll see how much of that cash came from other people at the
end of the month, when candidates file their disclosure statements.
He also doesn’t have an organization, which only amplifies
the problem of his incredibly low name recognition.
Even with that half-million bucks, Brady
needs to do a whole lot more to position himself for contention
next year.
This article appears in Jul 14-20, 2005.
