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The Nov. 7 election gave Illinois Senate President
Emil Jones more bragging rights than anyone else at the Statehouse. Jones’ Democrats picked up five seats on
Tuesday, giving them one more than the minimum needed for a veto-proof
majority. Jones’ 37 seats compares to just 22 for the Senate
Republicans. To say that the Senate Republicans are now irrelevant
for at least the next two years would be putting it mildly. The Senate
Republicans won’t be able to stop anything, including bills for new
state construction-bond programs, which require a minimum of 36 votes. The GOP focus will likely turn to the House
Republicans, who could use their continued ability to hold up a bond bill
as a major bargaining chip. For the past two years, the Republicans have
tried to “starve” the Democrats and Gov. Rod Blagojevich
politically by withholding votes from a construction-bond bill. No
projects, no press releases, no glowing news stories meant that the playing
field was more level, went the logic. That obviously didn’t work.
Blagojevich won by nine points, the House Democrats appear to have picked
up one seat, and the Democrats swept the state. A capital bill now looks
likely. As the House Republicans contemplate their future
role, the finger-pointing among the Senate Republicans has already begun.
Supporters of Senate GOP leader Frank Watson point to the Democratic wave
and the weakest statewide Republican ticket in memory as big reasons for
their heavy losses last week. But there is another aspect. Watson ousted longtime
Republican state Sen. Adeline Geo-Karis in the GOP primary because he
worried that she would lose the general election. That strategy backfired
badly: Geo-Karis endorsed the Democratic candidate, who won. Watson spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in a
futile attempt to defeat Democratic state Sen. Deanna Demuzio, the widow of
a longtime Democratic state senator. It turned out that the Demuzio name is
still platinum in her district, and Watson’s GOP candidate was a
total unknown from the wrong end of the district. Demuzio won with just
under 60 percent of the vote. Watson also spent hundreds of thousands in an attempt
to take out a Peoria Democratic candidate who had been handpicked by
retiring state Sen. George Shadid, a local icon. Shadid’s endorsement
of Dave Koehler was worth its weight in gold, and Koehler took almost 58
percent. The Senate GOP leader’s failure to see
Democratic surges, such as a supposedly sure-thing contest in Will and Kane
counties pitting Republican Terri Ann Wintermute against Democrat Linda
Holmes, has shaken some Republicans to the core.
Watson’s decision to move his female candidates
rightward on abortion and stem-cell research and attack all of their
Democratic opponents for opposing parental notification is also up for
debate. Everything else, from the quality of Republican TV ads and their candidate
recruitment to their message in general, is fair game now. So Watson took a shot and it didn’t work. His
candidates were outclassed by one of the most extraordinary crops of
Democratic hopefuls I’ve seen fielded at any one time, the Democrats
had their most successful election since Watergate, mega rock star Barack
Obama personally campaigned or appeared in direct mail for all of the
Senate Democratic hopefuls, and — bada-bing, bada-boom — the
Republicans are left with 22 seats and they’re now more irrelevant
than an electric blanket in Baghdad. The joke going around last week was
that Watson’s punishment for losing so many races ought to be another
two years as minority leader. Barring something extreme, such as a gubernatorial
indictment (and the Republicans really ought to stop basing their political
hopes on this “event”), 2008 could be yet another good
Democratic year as the presidential election rolls through a solidly blue
state. So something does have to change, even if Watson survives a possible
coup attempt. Former House Republican Leader Lee Daniels went from
being on the victim end of a veto-proof majority in 1990 to the
Speaker’s podium in four years. But Daniels had a Republican-drawn
legislative district map and the ’94 national GOP landslide to thank
— and he still lost the majority two years later. The Senate Republicans are dealing with a
Democrat-drawn map; a dysfunctional, divided, and unpopular Republican
Party; and a bunch of new Democratic lawmakers who are known for innovation
and hard work. It doesn’t take much to figure out that the future is
not all that bright for the Senate Repubs right now, no matter who is in
charge.
Rich Miller publishes Capitol
Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.
This article appears in Nov 9-15, 2006.
