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A new statewide poll shows that, given the
opportunity, a majority of Illinoisans would vote to recall Gov. Rod
Blagojevich. But don’t get your hopes up. In the poll of 600 registered Illinois voters, taken
Nov. 1-3 by the Glengariff Group, 51.9 percent of registered voters said
they would vote to recall Blagojevich if it were possible in Illinois to
recall an elected official. The state currently has no recall provision in
its Constitution, but the Chicago Tribune touched off a firestorm several days ago with a
Sunday editorial that broached the subject. According to the poll, a majority or a plurality of
every demographic, including race, region, and party, said they would vote
to recall Blagojevich. Even in Chicago, the margin was 48.2 percent for
Blagojevich’s recall and 43.9 percent against. And 46.7 percent of
Democrats said they were for recalling Blagojevich if they had the chance;
45.4 percent said they wouldn’t support it. The Glengariff poll also found that support for the
addition of a recall provision to the Constitution has increased by 7.5
percent since May, when the polling firm last asked the question. According
to the poll, a whopping 65 percent of Illinoisans now favor adding recall
to the Constitution, with support rising in every region of the state. The survey showed a somewhat higher job-approval
rating for Blagojevich than he garnered in two recent polls that had him in
the high teens to mid-twenties. The Glengariff poll had the
governor’s approval rating at 31.5 percent, with 61.2 percent
disapproval. That’s still not good at all, of course, and 42 percent
of the state’s registered voters strongly disapproved of the
governor’s performance, which is downright awful. All recent polling has shown that the
governor’s support by African-Americans, his most reliable base until
lately, is collapsing. The Glengariff poll showed that black voters gave
the governor just a 38 percent approval rating. That’s down from 81
percent in May. Back in May, 75 percent of Chicago voters approved of
the governor’s job performance, but Glengariff’s latest has
that approval at 44 percent. Also in May, Glengariff Group’s polling had
Blagojevich with a 71 percent approval rating among his fellow Democrats.
That’s down to just 42 percent now. All of these most recent numbers essentially track
with every other poll taken since July. Just 26.2 percent of Illinoisans believe the state is
on the right track; 65 percent say it’s on the wrong track.
That’s a 13 percent increase in Glengariff’s “wrong
track” numbers since May.
The governor’s staffers say they’re not worried about
those numbers. “All politicians are unpopular these days” is
the standard response. Not so. I took a look at SurveyUSA’s Web site last
week. The polling company does a fantastic job of tracking approval ratings
for statewide officials all over the country. I couldn’t find any governor anywhere with numbers worse
than Blagojevich’s — not even Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who
has been beset by corruption allegations and just got pounded in that
state’s general election by his Democratic rival. According to
SurveyUSA, Fletcher’s job-approval rating last month was 36 percent
and his disapproval at 60 percent. The only politicians with worse numbers than
Blagojevich’s are President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick
Cheney. That’s not exactly comforting news. But — and this is a big “but”
— any amendment to the Illinois Constitution implementing recall
would have to be passed by both chambers of the General Assembly or enacted
through a constitutional convention, which voters will have a say on next
November. It’s more than doubtful that the state House
and Senate would voluntarily open up that can of worms. Any convention, if
it happens, wouldn’t take place until 2009 at the earliest, and even
then a recall provision isn’t guaranteed. In other words, you might want to recall him, but
you’re almost undoubtedly stuck with Rod Blagojevich as your governor
through the end of his term in January of 2011. I feel your pain.
Rich Miller publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political
newsletter. He can be reached at capitolfax.blogspot.com.
This article appears in Nov 8-14, 2007.
