The Ron Gidwitz campaign had a stark warning
for Judy Baar Topinka last week: “If you think this ad is tough,
just wait.” Gidwitz, who is running for governor as a
Republican, aired the first negative ad of the campaign last week,
then dismissed Topinka’s rebuttals as mere whining and vowed
that he would ignore any attempt by the Illinois Republican Party
to browbeat his campaign into pulling the spot. The Gidwitz ad claims that Topinka
“doubled spending” in her office, approved billions
in new borrowing, and proposed a sales-tax increase. Only one of the charges is completely true. The doubled-spending claim is particularly
onerous and one that can’t possibly be made with a straight
face. The Gidwitz campaign claims that payroll costs for the
treasurer’s office have doubled since Topinka took office in
1995, an assertion that is technically true but doesn’t take
into account the facts that two state programs were transferred to
the treasurer’s office during that time and that she
drastically reduced headcount and administrative costs after taking
control. Topinka is also required by law to sign off
on long-term-borrowing plans when both chambers approve and the
governor signs them into law. And she did back a sales-tax increase
when she was in the state Senate, but that was a compromise floated
to reduce the “granny tax” on nursing-home beds. More negative ads are planned, however, and
the Gidwitz campaign has broadly hinted last that the current spot
is tame by comparison. During one recent conversation with the
campaign, an analogy was made between the Gidwitz advertising plan
and the House Republicans’ 2004 assault on former Democratic
state Rep. Bill Grunloh. Grunloh, an appointed legislator, was repeatedly battered and beaten
during the ’04 campaign. His brief voting record was picked apart
and distorted, his family business ties were vilified, and his
integrity was just about wiped out. By the end, Grunloh was reduced to
publicly pleading that the negative attacks cease — pretty
please. He was clobbered at the polls. But a couple of months ago, state Republican
Party chairman Andy McKenna asked that all the candidates play fair
and avoid negative assaults. He also indicated that he would try to
referee disputes between candidates. A couple of days after the Gidwitz ad
appeared, the Republican State Central Committee held an emergency
meeting to discuss the Gidwitz attack. Topinka had requested the
meeting. The meeting resulted in the first-ever rebuke
by the committee of a GOP gubernatorial candidate, but it was
immediately met with a defiant response. Gidwitz refused to pull or
alter the ad. “In our opinion, questions exist about
the accuracy of the charges in your current advertisement that need
to be resolved,” McKenna wrote on behalf of the committee.
The diplomatically worded but nonetheless unprecedented letter
urged Gidwitz to produce documentation to defend his charges; if he
can’t, the committee wrote, “We respectfully request
that you edit the content of the message to accurately and
truthfully reflect your opponent’s record.” Gidwitz eventually released a statement that
accused Topinka of hiding behind “Republican Party
insiders” instead of defending her record, adding, “If
she can’t stand on her own two feet, she certainly
can’t clean up the mess in Springfield.” Whatever happens, the reality is that far
more people will see the Gidwitz ad than will hear or read about
the party’s rebuke, so the conflict will stay mostly among
political wonks. A political-strategist friend points out that the
negative attacks will undoubtedly hurt Topinka but also doubts that
Gidwitz can win. Negative ads tend to send voters flocking to
other candidates, away from both the attacker and the attackee. A strong, consistently positive campaign
by conservative Republican candidate Jim Oberweis, my friend
says, could drive voters to him. I’m not so sure about that last part;
Oberweis’ negatives are high because of his antics in
previous campaigns. But unless Bill Brady, the fourth candidate in
the race, can raise a whole lot of money fast, Oberweis will likely
drive his numbers up with his new positive ad. Other voters may
just head to the “undecided” column to wait and see
what happens next. The Gidwitz campaign has been making a big
deal of alleged ethics issues with Topinka, so that may be the next
TV assault. Stay tuned.
This article appears in Feb 23 – Mar 1, 2006.
