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A new statewide poll confirms what most of us knew
anyway: If Barack Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee, he will do
a whole lot better in Illinois against Republican John McCain than would
Hillary Clinton. But there’s more to it than that.
The SurveyUSA poll of 600 registered Illinois voters
was released last week. It showed Obama trouncing McCain in a hypothetical
matchup, 60-31. Clinton, on the other hand, leads McCain by a far smaller
margin and is held to less than 50 percent, 48-37. The poll, conducted Feb. 29, found big leads for
Obama among both men and women, whereas McCain would beat Hillary Clinton
by 10 points among men (48-38). Obama stomps McCain with independent voters
60-29; Clinton has a slight lead, 39-36. In fact, according to the new poll, Obama wins every
demographic except Republicans and conservatives, but his margins there are
narrower than Clinton’s. Obama even wins the suburban collar counties against
McCain by 20 points, 57-37, and he holds a 52-32 lead among downstate
voters. Clinton trails McCain in the suburbs 47-34 but does lead downstate
49-42. Obama’s margin in suburban Cook County, which will be the
location of several state legislative showdowns this November, is far
higher than Clinton’s. Obama is up 60-32; Clinton leads 51-32. The numbers show clearly why Illinois Republicans are
so nervous that Obama might pull off a nomination win. McCain isn’t
doing particularly spectacularly against either candidate, but the national
Republican Party is likely to spend some money in Illinois if Clinton is
the nominee. They’ll probably abandon the state if Obama is at the
top of the ticket, which could cost Republicans about $1 million in
national cash and could lead to some serious legislative blowouts in
unexpected places.
One top legislative Republican speculated last week
that an Obama presidential campaign could cost the Illinois Senate
Republicans at least two additional seats this fall. The House Republicans,
who faced little opposition from the Democrats in 2006, would likely lose
more. Republican congressional candidate Jim
Oberweis’ convincing loss in a suburban special election earlier this
month also proves that in this environment Republicans at the state
legislative level — where name recognition is lower than that in the
U.S. House — need to have strong candidates, and they need to work
them hard and pray four or five times a day that Obama doesn’t win
the nomination and then cut ads for their Democratic opponents. Republicans
also need to recognize that every Republican in that district could be in
danger come November, when Oberweis runs again for the seat. Republicans
have to be tearing their hair out right now. All that leads us to this story. Sen. Kirk Dillard, R-Hinsdale, said last week that he
is seriously considering resigning his unpaid leadership post with the
Senate Republicans because he was “clearly misled” by Senate
GOP Leader Frank Watson. Dillard claims that Watson promised to appoint him to
recently retired state Sen. Todd Sieben’s old slot as assistant
minority leader. But that didn’t happen. After Sieben retired,
Sen. Dale Righter was appointed to the paid position. Righter, who has been
serving as de facto floor leader for leadership during debates, had been
the Senate Republicans’ caucus chair, which is also an unpaid
leadership job. Sen. Dale Risinger was then given Righter’s old spot.
Dillard said he would use the current two-week spring
break to decide whether he will continue as minority whip or step down from
leadership altogether, “since I believe I was misled.”
Dillard lost an election for the top Senate
Republican Leadership job to Watson after Senate President Pate Philip
decided not to continue leading the caucus when the Democrats took control
of the chamber in 2003. Relations have since been somewhat tense between
Dillard and Watson, and they weren’t helped much when Dillard
appeared in a TV ad for Obama’s presidential campaign. The last thing the Republicans need right now is
another round of divisiveness, but that may be just what they get. The
infamous Illinois Republican circular firing squad never seems to miss its
target.
Rich Miller also
publishes Capitol Fax, a daily
political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.
This article appears in Mar 13-19, 2008.
