As climate change increasingly harms our world, 200 countries met in Egypt Nov. 6-20 at the COP27 climate conference. Some 40,000 persons attended the 27th annual conference to make global climate policy to protect our planet. Presidents Putin of Russia, Xi of China and Prime Minister Modi from India did not attend. The conference was expected to accomplish little and did so, except for one action.
Antonio Guterres, secretary general of the United Nations, opened the conference with a fiery admonition: "Humanity must cooperate or perish. We are on the road to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator." He called for a new "Climate Solidarity Pact" in which emissions decline sharply and rich countries create a "Loss and Damage Fund" to help developing countries. China and the U.S. should grasp their special responsibility to lead and act boldly.
Current situation Existing country pledges are not sufficient to thwart climate change. In fact, even if all countries fulfill their current commitments the global average temperature by 2100 will increase to around 3 degrees Celsius, double the United Nations safe target of 1.5 C. The cumulative country emissions over the last 200 years are: U.S. 1,250 tonnes of CO2 per person, China 180 tonnes per person and African countries and India average 35 tonnes per person.
Our world today is reeling from one shock after another, making it difficult for countries to spend on climate protection. Nations are buffeted by the economic downturn, the pandemic-caused increase in world poverty, and piles of country debt. Now we have the large costs and famine caused by Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine. These shocks strain all countries' budgets to the breaking point.
Reducing carbon emissions World carbon emissions are still rising overall; moderately in Southern Hemisphere countries while falling in northern countries. The southern countries say it is their turn to grow and prosper using cheap fossil energy as did the northern countries earlier. Most countries have failed in their repeated promises to cut emissions. This is the devastating problem the conference faced.
Germany proposed in September a bold new effort to dramatically cut emissions, including new pledges from key industrial nations to sharply cut their emissions through a "Climate Club," along lines previously suggested by Professor Nordhaus of Yale University. The failure to adopt this proposal was the glaring failure of the conference.
Help for developing and island nations A focal point of the conference was the Loss and Damage Fund demanded by the developing nations. This deadlocked the conferees until the last minute. In previous climate conferences since 1995 this same stalemate had persisted between rich countries asked to give assistance to developing countries who have been greatly harmed but did not themselves cause the harm. And so it was again until the last minute.
The G77 coalition of developing and island nations were adamant in their demand for help. Already floods, droughts, famine and rising sea levels were devastating their countries. However, the industrial countries were fearful that they would face an unknown and limitless cost for future compensation from their budgets. They too are already pummeled by the pandemic, global inflation and recession as well as the swelling costs of helping defend Ukraine from Russia. So there was deadlock until the last Thursday of negotiations.
Then, Frans Timmermans, leader of the EU delegation, gave an inspiring speech to the assembly, declaring that bitter failure was staring them all in the face. They had to find a way forward. Failure was not acceptable.
Negotiations reached a feeling of near hopelessness late Friday, but then continuing negotiations into late Saturday night until dawn on Sunday, Nov. 20, brought agreement. Dogged work came to fruition. Nevertheless, the essential work of funding the new fund lay ahead for next year. A climactic failure was avoided.
Conclusion Once again, failure was avoided but success was not achieved. Our climate is still on a collision course with nature and humankind. However, the critical action plan for success is now agreed upon. This is by no means the time for a victory lap. But rather it is time for redoubling now the hard work of acting to fulfill the set targets agreed upon. These are to drastically cut emissions by a "band of brothers" nations to meet 2030 and 2050 targets, and find the substantial fundings for damage assistance, sustainability and energy transition for the G77 developing countries, from both public sources and private investment. It is, however, unlikely that stretched national budgets of industrial nations will provide such enormous loss and damage funding.
Two further and difficult steps are needed: first, changing the voting procedure from unanimous to a considerable majority, and placing a small surcharge or tax on international travel and trade to produce major and reliable loss and damage funding. The global threat requires global funding. Let the hard work begin.
Roy Wehrle of Springfield is emeritus professor at University of Illinois Springfield, where he has taught economics, international affairs and the environment.
