Another poll shows Jim Edgar, a former
governor, with a commanding lead over Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Taken
late last month for the Judy Baar Topinka campaign, the poll has
Edgar leading Blagojevich 51-38.2.
Edgar led everywhere except Chicago, where
Blagojevich held a 63.4-26.7 advantage. Edgar’s largest
margin was downstate, where he was creaming the incumbent 62.5-26,
but Edgar also led in suburban Cook County (50.7-40.3) and the
collar counties (54.0-34.4). The poll’s margin of error was
3.5 percent. The margins of error for the regional results are much
higher, of course.
The results are not much different than
earlier polls have reported.
What makes this particular poll significant
is that the governor’s people claimed in May, after a survey
by the Chicago Tribune showed the governor’s numbers in the
basement, that their poll numbers are “always” bad in
the spring but bounce back in the fall. Well, we’re almost to
autumn, and the governor is still tanking. The rule of thumb is if
poll numbers stay down too long, they’ll tend to stick there.
If these numbers are the same in October, it will take a herculean
effort to get Blagojevich in a position to win, even with all of
that cash in the bank.
The governor had slightly better news from
SurveyUSA, a nonpartisan polling firm, which showed
Blagojevich’s job-approval rating stuck in the
high-30-percent range in recent months. The polling firm did not release its August tracker because of the
Hurricane Katrina devastation. I called last week and was told that the
August results will be released with the September numbers. I’m
not allowed to publish the August numbers yet, but suffice it to say
that the governor’s job approval jumped somewhat, finally putting
him above 40 percent. The firm polls 600 Illinois residents every
month, with a margin of error of about 4.1 percent.
Meanwhile, Topinka’s poll had her
leading Blagojevich 43.8-39.5. The treasurer was held under 50
percent everywhere except downstate, where she had a 54.1-28 lead,
but she led Blagojevich in all regions except Chicago. Topinka is
widely considered the Republican front-runner if Jim Edgar opts out
of the race.
The Topinka poll also asked whether likely
voters trusted Blagojevich with state finances. Fifty-one percent
said no; just 40.6 percent said yes.
Illinois House and Senate Republicans are
undoubtedly praying for another Edgar run. The Senate Republicans
are losing an astonishing number of members to retirement or higher
office next year and will have to defend several districts that
weren’t considered competitive while the current incumbents
were still running.
Several House Republicans are considering
running for those Senate vacancies, which will force House GOP
leader Tom Cross to raise far more money than he did during the
last cycle.
Some potential candidates, particularly those
who would be put up against Democratic incumbents, are telling the
party’s leadership that they’re waiting to see what
Edgar does before they decide. If Edgar runs, the Republicans will
most likely be able to recruit more and better candidates. If he
takes a pass, their recruitment could hit a snag.
An Edgar candidacy would go a long way toward
calming Republican nerves.
This article appears in Sep 15-21, 2005.
