The fact that Ron Gidwitz and Steve
Rauschenberger have teamed up to run as a ticket may seem a bit odd
at first, but it makes sense in more ways than one, and it’s
probably their best shot at winning next spring. Rauschenberger, you already know, dropped out
of the Republican gubernatorial race to run as Gidwitz’s
lieutenant-governor candidate. Despite spending millions of dollars on TV
ads and direct mail (and making some wealthy out-of-state
consultants even wealthier in the process), Gidwitz is polling no
higher than 4 percent and was at just 3.5 percent in a poll
commissioned by the state Republican Party a little over a week
ago. That last poll put him within the margin of error of zero, so,
obviously, nothing has worked. Steve Rauschenberger was endorsed by almost
every newspaper in Illinois when he ran for the U.S. Senate in
2004, but he couldn’t raise any money and finished third in
the GOP primary. This year, Rauschenberger’s money troubles
have continued, but even before anyone had spent a dime,
Rauschenberger’s poll numbers were in the mid-single digits
and then never budged — a pretty good indication that the
previous statewide bid hadn’t done the candidate any good. Despite Rauschenberger’s repeated
claims to the contrary, the campaign was running on fumes.
Rauschenberger had laid off staff in the past few weeks and was not
in a financial position to make the big run next spring. Gidwitz
has money to burn, but nobody was paying any attention to him. Good
sources say that Gidwitz promised Rauschenberger that he would
spend $10 million to $15 million on the primary campaign alone —
although that figure is far higher than the one Gidwitz gave some
insiders a few days before. Whatever Gidwitz spends, teaming up means
that Rauschenberger and his minions can afford to stay on the
campaign trail. It will also provide an immediate lift to the
Gidwitz campaign, which has been lift-free since day one. The combo
will give political reporters something to write about and at least
allow them the illusion that the dynamics of the race have changed.
Reporters would have thought it boring to cover a four-month
coronation of Queen Judy Baar Topinka, she of the very wide lead
and strong establishment support. But has anything really changed? If you add
the raw poll numbers up, Gidwitz and Rauschenberger are now just
under 10 percent — 2 points behind Jim Oberweis and way
behind Topinka, who’s at 39 percent, according to the state
GOP. This combo is about more than raw numbers,
however. Gidwitz and Rauschenberger have both fashioned themselves
as reformers, never mind that Rauschenberger is one of the fathers
and staunchest supporters of the member initiatives (pork) program
and Gidwitz is a country-club Republican, former George Ryan
supporter, and owner of some truly awful slum property in Joliet. Both men have based their campaigns on a
desire to tear down this state’s long tradition of
pay-to-play pinstripe patronage and replace it with a fresh, clean
government worthy of its citizens. That’s the spark they hope to ignite.
Yes, it’s also about money, ego, low poll numbers, and more
than a little desperation. But what I gather they’re trying
to do here is form a thoughtful center-right alliance for change:
political reform, education reform, tax reform. If they play it right, the synergy of their
merger could amount to much more than the abysmal 10 percent they
are getting together in the polls right now. Because they have
nothing to lose (you can’t go much lower than 3.5 percent),
they can be as aggressive as they want. Topinka, on the other hand,
is campaigning with her eyes on the general election, which forces
her to remain cautious and in the middle. Then again, synergistic mergers were all the
rage in the ’90s business world, and they didn’t work
out too well. Also, don’t forget that the Republican
establishment may be battered, but it’s still fairly
influential in primaries, and the establishment is mostly with
Topinka. She’s also still the only woman against three men,
two of whom are quite conservative and fighting over the same base
of hardcores. But the Republican poll showed that 43 percent of
voters are undecided — and that could turn out to be fertile
ground for the Gidwitz-Rauschenberger team, if it beats
expectations and somehow catches on.
This article appears in Dec 15-21, 2005.
