On pure style points, Jim Oberweis won last
week’s Republican gubernatorial debate. His performance was
Reaganesque. He had the Gipper’s head movements down pat, but
also his forthrightness and optimism, his overly simplistic
solutions, and the classic use of a real person to make a very good
point (a trucking-company owner who promised to move back to
Illinois if Oberweis is elected). Winning a debate, however, doesn’t mean
winning the actual debate. Vastly more people saw news coverage of
the debate than watched the actual debate, so the filter is king.
Oberweis is not beloved by reporters, so his coverage was fair but
not exactly glowing. State Sen. Bill Brady, with his youthful
TV-ready looks, performed better than some expected, and that got
him some very good coverage. Like George W. Bush has done so often,
Brady successfully played down his hard-right stances by using
middle-of-the-road imagery, strong anti-tax rhetoric, adherence to
principle above all else, and quiet optimism. Brady won another major point — or,
rather, Oberweis lost. Because Brady surprised some observers with
his performance and will likely get more good write-ups as a
result, it will be that much tougher for Oberweis to push him out
of the race or marginalize his fellow conservative. For weeks now, Oberweis has claimed that this
is a two-person contest between himself and state Treasurer Judy
Baar Topinka. But instead of ignoring Brady, Oberweis made the
critical mistake of debating him one on one earlier in the day at a
City Club function. Bad move. Brady, likely upset with the way Oberweis has
tried to push him aside, unleashed a torrent of criticism at
Oberweis during the early debate for flipping on guns, abortion,
and ethanol and for being way too scary on immigration issues.
Oberweis will now have to contend with a possibly surging Brady,
who is after the same conservative votes as he is, while trying to
gain ground on Topinka. Topinka’s folksy demeanor, her insistence
that the state needs an “adult” in the governor’s
mansion, and her statement that any of the Republicans on the stage
would be a better governor than Rod Blagojevich — with the
humorous kicker, “that’s depressing” — all
showed what sort of campaign she will run. Topinka also avoided answering pointed
questions and didn’t get all that specific, which is a basic
frontrunner tactic that she won’t abandon unless forced to by
her opponents or the media. Stylistically, she looked way too often at
her notes instead of the camera, but that unfortunate habit can be
overcome. She also refused to overtly pile on Ron Gidwitz when
Gidwitz was asked about his alleged slum property in Joliet, but
she managed a sly dig by cracking, “This is Ron’s
problem and not mine.” It was good TV. Nobody really laid a glove on Topinka during
the debate itself, so the usual expectation is that because the
frontrunner didn’t lose, she won. Oberweis and Gidwitz waited until after the
debate to attack Topinka, undoubtedly understanding that three men
ganging up on a woman all at once wouldn’t look too good.
Without a truly big strike against her, and with Oberweis and Brady
now locked in a death match, Topinka wins this round. Gidwitz was a mess. He didn’t explain
his highly detailed positions very well, he stammered, he looked
bad on camera, and he droned on and on about the number of
associations he has been involved with and the number of task
forces and committees he has chaired. The Gidwitz campaign has
tried to “introduce” their candidate to the voters for
months, without success. It’s time to switch tactics and try
breaking out of the pack. Instead of looking like a leader, Gidwitz
came across as a well-dressed bureaucrat. Not a good night. Score this Topinka, Brady, Oberweis, Gidwitz.
This article appears in Feb 2-8, 2006.
