Back in 2018, about midway through President Donald
Trump’s first term, the Illinois Senate passed a bill that was designed to
prevent “the weakening of Illinois environmental and labor regulations in
response to a weakening of federal regulations,” according to an Illinois
Environmental Council press release.
Some state rules are tied directly to federal rules, so
if the feds had slashed regulations, the idea was to prevent that from
happening here.
“This bill aims to preserve the status quo of Illinois’
current safeguards as the federal administration continues to roll back
environmental standards,” the IEC claimed at the time. “The Illinois Baseline
Protection Act would prevent the weakening of any current Illinois standard
below the federal standard already in place.”
The bill, SB2213, went nowhere in the House, however.
As I’ve been telling my subscribers for a while now, some
Democrats are looking at “Trump-proofing” state statutes going forward, perhaps
as early as the November veto session, although no language is currently
circulating, so it may have to wait.
Gov. JB Pritzker was asked about this topic last week and
said he’d met with his senior staff about the concept. He also “talked to some
other governors around the country about the things that they’re looking at
doing.” California’s Democratic governor has already called a special
legislative session.
Pritzker didn’t say if he’d come up with any ideas, but
he listed “health care, reproductive rights” as possible topics.
Illinois’ trade unions, led by Local 150 of the Operating
Engineers Union, have been looking at this topic since before the election.
While no legislation has yet been drafted, they said they are gaming situations
about what would happen if the feds repealed the Davis Bacon Act, which sets
the prevailing wage on government contracts.
They’re also looking at creating a state version of the
National Labor Relations Act, which is the basis for all federal labor laws on
organizing, collective bargaining and the right to strike. Some businesses,
including Elon Musk’s Tesla, have challenged the constitutionality of the NLRA.
I asked House Speaker Chris Welch for comment on what
might happen in the near future.
“This week has proven that the work we’ve done in
Illinois matters more than ever, and I’m grateful that we’ve taken steps to
safeguard the rights and values that are now at extreme risk in many surrounding
states. We’ll be heading into this veto session with a renewed determination to
ensure our fundamental freedoms remain protected.”
But Illinois reality is also starting to intrude.
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget published
its mandated five-year budget projection late last month, and it was bad news
for the state, to the tune of a projected $3.16 billion deficit in the coming
fiscal year, which begins July 1.
“The ability to fund new programs will be severely
limited,” the budget office warned.
A caveat: The spending and most of the revenue
projections are made using current laws and past trends. The economy can
change, and laws and practices can be changed.
GOMB also issued a reminder of something we all learned
during the budget impasse years ago: “(S)pending reductions cannot be
implemented broadly across-the-board. Areas such as debt service on state
general obligation bonds, pension payments, Medicaid, and areas that are
covered by consent decrees reflect approximately 40% of the State’s General
Funds spending. Education spending – primarily base school support (e.g.
Evidence Based Funding and transportation reimbursements), state university
operations, and need-based assistance – encompass another 24% of the budget.”
That would mean 16% cuts to what can be reduced, without
taking other action.
Donald Trump’s much-improved state election results here
(halving his loss margin from his last two races) do not create the sort of
political environment you want when facing a big deficit next fiscal year –
especially if you’re a governor with his eyes on the White House.
Despite the fact that Illinois state and local Democrats
appear to have held on to most every office they had, their earlier exuberance
contrasted poorly with that final Trump number. And that can put the fear into
legislators. Fearful legislators may not want to stick their necks out for a
tax hike.
Pritzker himself downplayed his own budget office’s
projection by saying the annual forecast has “been wrong every year.”
Yes, we have seen some wild projections. But the crazy
pandemic-era fiscal swings have mostly ended, making projections a bit easier.
Pritzker told reporters that his administration had
“defeated” dire predictions every year and pledged to introduce and pass a
balanced budget next year.
This article appears in This I believe Illinois.
