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The Midwest is where it’s at — for corn
and politics. Five Midwestern states — Illinois, Missouri,
Iowa, Ohio, and Indiana — account for half of the nation’s corn
production and more than 40 percent of all ethanol-processing facilities.
Midwestern states are also key in national politics:
In almost every presidential election since 1892, voters in Missouri and
Ohio have picked the winner, and the influential Iowa caucuses, the first
in the nation, give an early indication of which candidates are likely to
win their parties’ nominations.
Where there’s corn, politicians see
opportunity. Although a candidate’s position on a cereal
grain won’t on its own determine who becomes the nation’s 44th
president, with each passing election cycle ethanol, which today is made
mostly from corn, could become a bellwether issue in the 2008 presidential
race. In late December, a survey conducted by Research
2000, one of several widely tracked nationwide polling firms, showed U.S. Sen. Hillary
Clinton, D-N.Y., considered the Democratic front-runner, trailing U.S. Sen.
Barack Obama of Illinois and former North Carolina senator John Edwards by
double digits in Iowa.
One possible explanation for Clinton’s poor
showing in the Hawkeye State is the fact that she was one of 26 senators to
vote against last year’s energy bill, which mandated that 7.5 billion
gallons of ethanol be added to the nation’s fuel supply by 2012. Nor
is Clinton laying much groundwork for a run in Iowa, the top producer of
both corn and ethanol. Although he’s currently leading the Republican
herd, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a longtime fervent opponent of
ethanol, skipped Iowa’s 2000 caucus altogether. Of the zillion-or-so people still kicking around the
idea of running for president, Obama has been the most loyal ethanol
supporter. During his 2004 Senate campaign, Obama said he wanted
to double U.S. ethanol production by 2012. Last year he attached an
amendment to the federal highway bill to give $30,000 in tax credits to gas
stations that install E85 fuel pumps. He even drives a flexible-fuel SUV that can run on
regular gas or blended E85. How else could a black man from the South Side of
Chicago expect to win over a bunch of corn farmers? And you’d better
believe that Clinton, McCain, and the rest are paying attention. Now that developers have announced plans to build a
110 million-gallon ethanol-processing plant in her home state, in downtown
Buffalo, this year, Clinton has relaxed her opposition to ethanol. Addressing the National Press Club this summer,
Clinton said that corn-based ethanol was still “a long way from
helping us deal with our gas problems” and proposed increased funding
for research of cellulosic ethanol, which is made from fibers in wood,
wheat, grass, and, yes, cornstalks. McCain, too, seems to have changed his position. The
Arizona Republican has for years, like many other ethanol critics,
dismissed the fuel as corporate welfare for such companies as Decatur-based
Archer Daniels Midland. “Ethanol is a product that would not exist if
Congress didn’t create an artificial market for it. No one would be
willing to buy it,” McCain said in 2003. But now McCain is calling for more study of and
investment in ethanol technologies, indicating, observers say, that
he’s softening his stance. The now-crowded list of would-be presidential
contenders will shrink rapidly in the coming months. The weakest Democratic
candidates will soon have to come to terms with the reality of
Obama’s star appeal and Clinton’s war chest. With Obama neck-and-neck with Clinton but clearly
gaining momentum, the rest of the Democratic field should be careful not to
follow Obama off any cliffs. Pro-ethanol scientists cite a positive, albeit
razor-thin, net energy gain. Meanwhile, detractors say just the opposite,
arguing that every unit of energy expended in the production of the stuff
should also be factored into the equation. Granted, ethanol — which often comes up in
homeland-security discussions as an alternative to Middle Eastern petroleum
— is a winning issue here in the Midwest. But the question of whether ethanol is a winning
formula as a fuel, as a solution to our energy crisis, has yet to be
resolved and probably won’t be anytime soon.
Contact RL Nave at rnave@illinoistimes.com
This article appears in Jan 4-10, 2007.
