Now and then in recent columns, I’ve touched on the risks and the occasional opportunities
faced by Illinois as the world’s climate changes. Over at WUIS-FM’s useful news site, three experts at the University
of Illinois taking part in the U of I’s
Institute of Government and Public Affairs’ Climate Policy Initiative — Dan
Fullerton, Professor of Finance, Megan
Konar, an assistant professor of civil engineering and Julian Reif, assistant
professor of finance — offered their
analysis of the consequences.
Among the authors’ main
points:
When we
think of climate change, we often imagine melting ice caps, rising sea levels
that engulf small islands and changes to habitats that decimate entire
species. . . . Although less
dramatic, climate change will be no less disruptive for Illinois. The
repercussions will be complex and influence everything from human health to
electricity costs. Even our ability to grow crops will change. . . .
For Illinois, the U.S. Global Change Research
Program predicts that the number of days each year with temperatures over 95
degrees Fahrenheit will more than double by the middle of this century. . . .
Spring rainfall in Illinois will likely increase by
up to 10 percent in central Illinois and by 10 to 20 percent in northern
Illinois. An increase in spring rainfall will add to the number and severity of
annual floods. In the summers, droughts will become more likely. . . .
What does this mean in practical
terms? The authors explain:
[Farming] output may decrease because extra spring
downpours will likely disrupt seeding efforts while decreased summer rainfall
will adversely affect the crop-growing season. Climate change is projected to
increase the variability of rainfall in the growing season, which will lead
crops to experience more water stress, reducing crop yields. Reduced yields
will impact other sectors of the economy that rely on locally grown corn, such
as livestock producers, grain storage and transportation companies.. . .
The prevalence and severity of floods are almost
certain to increase. With increased flooding in Illinois, flood insurance rates
will go up, unless local or state governments take aggressive measures to
protect communities from flood damage. . . .
In the next couple of decades, summers in Illinois
are projected to feel a lot more like summers now in Texas. Hotter summers will
lead more people to use air conditioning. This increase in demand will strain
the state’s electricity grid and increase the price of electricity.. .
We are the proverbial boiling frog,
We won’t notice for a while that things are getting hotter because the current climate
in Illinois will change only slowly over the next one or two decades. “But
projections show drastic differences from 2040 to 2070, when compared with
recent and current conditions.”
The authors conclude:
Investing in water resources, electricity and
transportation infrastructure are just three potential opportunities to
consider. An advisory group tasked with taking on the issue could (hopefully)
find other creative solutions to climate change in Illinois. . . . Yet the
delay is not an excuse for procrastination. Some of the needed infrastructure
investment might take 10 years to install, and the whole planning process will
take years before that construction can begin. The state must start that
planning now.
This article appears in Jul 30 – Aug 5, 2015.
