Untitled Document
The governor has said he wants billions more
a year for a universal health-care plan. Last week, a coalition of
business and labor groups called on the state to put $5 billion a
year into transportation for five years. The Regional
Transportation Authority estimates that it needs $57 billion over
30 years to maintain, enhance and expand transit services.
Also last week, state Sen. James Meeks and
the teachers’ unions unveiled a modified version of the
infamous Senate Bill 750 that will not only provide new education
dollars and roll back property taxes but will also pump $3 billion
into the state’s underfunded pension systems [see Mick Dumke,
“The church of clout,” Feb. 1]. Also, businesses big and small are apoplectic
over the rumor that Gov. Rod Blagojevich will propose a
multibillion-dollar “gross-receipts tax.”
The tax would zap pretty much every
transaction conducted by businesses and provide billions of dollars
(the business groups say maybe as much as $9 billion) a year for
the state’s coffers. At least one new coalition has been
formed to fight it, and more are likely on the way. Are we headed for the mother of all tax
hikes? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. House Speaker Michael Madigan is still not communicating directly with
Blagojevich. Senate President Emil Jones and Blagojevich (and their
staffs) are meeting regularly and appear to be preparing to shove the
governor’s and Jones’ agenda down Madigan’s throat,
which won’t go over well. The governor’s absolute top priority,
as noted above, is an expensive health-care package, and
Jones’ top spending item is education funding. Nobody knows
yet where Madigan’s priorities lie, but he is keenly
interested in pension funding. As I’ve told you before, Madigan and
Blagojevich aren’t getting along at all. Jones and Madigan
are also having lots of problems with their relationship. The
battle developing among the three Democrats appears almost Roman
— a fight to the end rather than just your usual political
spat. I say “almost” because Roman politicians often
used real knives and swords and drew real blood. I doubt that
we’ll ever get to that point here. Madigan’s initial reaction to the rumor
about a gross-receipts tax was not positive, insiders say, which
could set up a major showdown — that is, if the business
groups are correct and the governor goes through with the idea.
Right now, we have no idea either way. Many of Madigan’s most
politically endangered incumbents were endorsed by big-business
groups last fall, and Madigan has positioned himself as their
defender since then. For instance, he held up the minimum-wage
increase until some of their objections were addressed, and he
gutted and then essentially killed off the 7 percent Cook County
assessment cap, which business wanted dead. And then there’s the House Republicans.
House GOP Leader Tom Cross will have to put votes on any proposal
that includes long-term borrowing, such as transportation projects,
because those bills require a three-fifths vote. The Senate
Republicans have been aced out of the process because Jones has
more than a three-fifths majority in the Senate. The bipartisan, multiregional pressure to
pass a capital bill this year is so intense, as amply illustrated
by the diverse business-labor coalition behind it, that Cross may
be able to withhold his caucus’ votes and force a more
“reasonable” revenue-enhancement and benefits package
for the governor’s health-care plan and Jones’
education ideas. Cross has already said that he opposes a tax
hike but also says that he is open to gaming expansion. Almost
regardless of what they do, there’s no way that gaming money
can fund all of the governor’s and Jones’ priorities,
but it’s a pretty good start. And, finally, there are asset sales. The
governor says he can get $10 billion if he puts the lottery on the
auction block. There are those who say that he could be open to a
tollway sale as well (Meeks, who negotiated the lottery sale for
education funding, has often hinted as much), even though the
governor said repeatedly during the campaign that he wasn’t
for that particular idea. In the end, gaming and asset sales may be
a way to avoid a drastic tax increase and may look a whole lot more
inviting come May than they do now.
What this all adds up to is potentially the
most interesting legislative session since Jim Thompson was in
charge — or, if the Democrats can’t get their acts
together, the mother of all duds.
Rich Miller publishes Capitol Fax, a daily
political newsletter. He can be reached at capitolfax.blogspot.com.
This article appears in Feb 8-14, 2007.
