For the first time, a statewide poll has
included state Sen. James Meeks in the gubernatorial mix, but the
results are not yet encouraging for the potential third-party
candidate. Meeks, an African-American minister and state legislator
from Chicago, has been threatening to run for governor for the past
several weeks. The poll, conducted by the Glengariff Group,
surveyed 600 registered Illinois voters March 30-April 1. The poll
has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. In a three-way contest pitting Meeks against
Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, Topinka has
40 percent to Blagojevich’s 38 percent, and Meeks trails far
behind with 7 percent. (All numbers in this column include voters
who are leaning toward a particular candidate — without
“leaners,” Topinka leads 36-35-5.) From the looks of the poll, Meeks is getting
the “none of the above,” vote because most people still
probably don’t know he’s considering a run or
don’t know who he is, even if they have heard about his
potential candidacy. One good indication of this is the
African-American vote. Blagojevich has 67 percent of the
African-American vote to Topinka’s 13 percent to Meeks’
10 percent. Results for these types of questions have a much higher
margin of error than the full results, but the results still
indicate how little even his core constituency knows about or
currently supports Meeks’ potential candidacy. Still, he is
making a dent. Without Meeks in the race, Blagojevich leads Topinka
80-14 among black voters. Without Meeks, the Glengariff poll shows
Topinka leading Blagojevich by 3 points, 44-41. The pollster
believes that Meeks is taking support equally from both candidates.
Also without Meeks, Topinka leads Blagojevich
50-33 in suburban Cook County, 51-35 in the suburban “collar
counties,” 41-39 in west/northwest Illinois, and 65-19 in
central Illinois. Blagojevich leads in Chicago 65-25 and in
southern Illinois, 51-37. Topinka leads Blagojevich among men,
44-41. The two are tied among women, 42-42. With Meeks, Topinka leads in suburban Cook
46-30-7, in the collars 46-34-7, in west/northwest Illinois 42-33-9
and in central Illinois 55-19-15. Blagojevich has a 58-23-7 lead in
Chicago and a 48-32-8 lead in southern Illinois. Among men, Topinka
leads 41-38-8, and she also leads with women, 39-38-8. Again, the Meeks numbers probably don’t
mean a lot right now because his campaign has not yet begun, but
the poll’s results in the two-way contest are very similar
to those of a Rasmussen poll that was taken about the same time. That
poll had Topinka leading Blagojevich 43-41. So the numbers look right.
With a 4 percent margin of error in the Glengariff poll, there’s
a 79 percent probability that Topinka actually leads Blagojevich. The Glengariff Group also polled the
treasurer’s race. The pollster found Democratic nominee Alexi
Giannoulias leading state Sen. Christine Radogno 38-27. A third, 33
percent, were undecided. Giannoulias is a Democrat in a
Democratic-leaning state and he just won a primary, so it’s
understandable that he’s ahead. Radogno was unopposed in the
Republican primary and received almost no media coverage. Radogno led in suburban Cook 37-36 and in
central Illinois 41-19. Giannoulias led in the traditionally
Republican collar counties 35-28, in Chicago 55-12, in
west/northwest Illinois 34-33, and in southern Illinois 33-23.
Giannoulias also led among men, 37-28, and with women, 38-27.
Independents broke for Giannoulias 26-23, with 50 percent
undecided. As expected, incumbent Jesse White has a huge
lead over challenger Dan Rutherford in the race for secretary of
state. According to Glengariff, a whopping 59 percent of registered
voters prefer White, compared with just 28 percent for Rutherford. White led in every age group, in every region
of the state, with both sexes, even taking 21 percent of the
Republican vote. Independents prefer White, 55-24. The results
aren’t surprising; White won all 102 counties in 2002.
Rutherford’s only hope is for a major (and unexpected)
scandal to erupt or for White to be drafted to run for Cook County
Board president in the event that the ailing John Stroger decides
he can’t run again. The offer hasn’t been made yet, but
White’s people aren’t actively tamping down the
replacement rumors.
This article appears in Apr 13-19, 2006.
